Slim chance we could prevent a war (From Stroud News and Journal)

Slim chance we could prevent a war

Stroud councillor and former soldier Kevin Cranston is proud of the role he played in the last Gulf War. But this time with the Iraq war looming, he tells Sam Bond why he is firmly opposed to what he sees as an immoral, unjustified and provocative attack on a country which Mr Cranston believes poses no threat to the West.

KEVIN Cranston played an important role in the last Gulf War.

As an army Major he argued the case for helicopter support for the ground troops then managed to secure a base for them.

"Real estate was at something of a premium with all the armies of the world converging on one port in Saudi Arabia and hard standing to land the helicopters was not easy to find," he said. "That was probably the most useful thing I did in my career."

Mr Cranston has no doubt in his mind that the last war in the Gulf was justified and believes Britain was right to get involved. "There was a clear act of aggression and a long period of negotiation with plenty of opportunity for the Iraqis to withdraw," he said.

"The war was almost universally accepted and throughout the world it was supported by countries you would normally think of as opposites.

"We were all fighting on the same side and there was none of this last minute arm twisting that we see going on now.

"The ordinary man in the Middle East saw it as a just war. "There was an opportunity to put things right. We took it and Iraq was ejected from Kuwait using the minimum force."

But although Mr Cranston thinks the war itself was a success he believes the West made a huge mistake afterwards.

"If we had not allowed Saddam Hussein to fly helicopters in the no-fly zone and had sent the Republican Guard divisions trapped in Basra home on a bus rather than letting them leave with all their weapons it is quite likely he would not be in power today," he said.

"The Kurds and Shias rose up but were crushed because Saddam had not been properly disarmed."

Mr Cranston can see no good reason to invade now. He can however find several good reasons not to.

He is convinced the Iraqi dictator does not pose a military or terrorist threat to the West.

"The idea that Saddam could attack Britain is frankly laughable," he said.

"His army was comprehensively defeated in the first Gulf War and he hasn't been able to re-arm because of the sanctions.

"To my knowledge Iraq has had no involvement in terrorism to date and there is no reason to suspect it would have if left alone."

"To suggest Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden are working together is ridiculous. They are polar opposites in the Muslim world," he said.

"You're more likely to see Ian Paisley and the Pope teaming up. "We could be creating a terrorist threat by provoking the Middle East and being seen to act unfairly.

"If things go really badly wrong we'll stir up a hornets' nest of terrorism that could last for another generation," said Mr Cranston.

And he warned that the Iraqi people were unlikely to welcome Western troops as liberating heroes.

"They may be grateful if we get rid of Saddam but they don't necessarily want an American general imposed on them as another form of government," he said.

"Not everyone in the world aspires to the American lifestyle and values and that's something the Americans don't seem to realise."

The threat of weapons of mass destruction has also been greatly exaggerated, he claimed.

Saddam Hussein may have chemical weapons and perhaps biological weapons but almost certainly does not have nuclear arms, according to Mr Cranston.

"He had chemical weapons 11 years ago and did not use them against us and there is no reason to suspect he is on the brink of doing do now," he said.

And, he argued, we have nothing to fear from his nuclear programme.

"If Saddam did get nuclear weapons they wouldn't be for intimidating the West but to act as a balance to Israel's nuclear weapons."

"Israel would then have to severely curtail its way of doing things and would have to take the business of finding peaceful solutions to the Palestine question far more seriously.

"I doubt Saddam gives two hoots about the average Palestinian but like a lot of dictators and megalomaniacs he has this amazing depth of vanity that most of us can't comprehend and likes to see himself as the leader of the Arab world, a new Saladin.

"He takes it as an affront that there's this state that completely disregards the Arab people."

Mr Cranston has moral doubts about the war. Such reservations he understands are shared by many who are still in the military. "When there is no clear threat I think it is immoral to be launching unprovoked attacks and beginning an unjust war," he said.

"As an ex-soldier it grieves me that this will be the first time that the British Army has been used in an act of aggression since Suez."

"That upsets a lot people of my generation who are currently serving in the forces.

"There are a few officers talking about resignation but that will be after the war.

"They will do their job despite their reservations and they'll do it as humanely as possible.

"But there will be no gung-ho triumphalism afterwards like there was on the other side of the Atlantic last time.

"The younger elements are probably quite keen to get into action.

"But it will be the older, more experienced men who perhaps have been to other wars who will be more thoughtful about it."

He said invading Iraq would go against the whole ethos of the modern British military.

"The whole philosophy of the British Army has always been to use a minimum of force and as a last resort," said Mr Cranston. "That's fundamentally different from the American way of doing things.

"We realise you can achieve a lot more by carrying people with you and winning friends than you can by force alone."

He said the war, if it happens, would do a great deal of damage to Britain's reputation throughout the world.

"I travel a lot and the British are generally held in high regard for a sense of fair play and general honesty," said Mr Cranston. "But the people I've met are wondering why we are getting involved in this adventure."

Despite his vehement opposition Mr Cranston accepts there is now a sense of the inevitable about a second Gulf War. "It's theoretically still possible to stop it," he said.

"Though the timetable has been drawn up and neither Bush nor Saddam Hussein are likely to back down. "The thing has developed a momentum of its own.

"The people with the power to stop it lack the will and the people with the will to stop it lack the power."

Despite his bleak prognosis Mr Cranston believes there is still hope.

If enough people - a million or more - turn up for the peace march in London this Saturday, February 15, and concerned citizens continue to bombard Downing Street with letters of disapproval there is a slim chance Tony Blair will make a U-turn.

If that happens the fragile international coalition could well crumble, leaving the United States to go it alone.

That could then lead to a lack of public support in America which could in turn halt the war.

"It's a slim chance but its the only hope," said Mr Cranston. "We've got to give it a go."

* Several coaches will be leaving Stroud on February 15 to take people to the London rally. Anyone interested in reserving a seat should call John Marjoram on 01453 750962.