THERE is a thought that Guinness and Grand Metropolitan could escape more lightly than is generally supposed from giving up assets to gain the merger approval of the US Federal Trade Commission.

In any case, one could presume that the FTC would feel sorry for any company that wanted to call itself Diageo.

It is now more than seven weeks since Brussels decided that merger could proceed, with the major restriction being that the European rights to Dewar's be sold.

It was assumed throughout the autumn that the FTC announcement would coincide or at least follow within a few days.

So far, silence.

However, there is an air of great satisfaction from Diageo, which may indicate that the surrender of brands would be not more than 5% of the combined pre-tax profit - or #100m on approximately #2000m - is far too pessimistic a forecast.

Contrary to the general assumption that Dewar's would have to be surrendered in North America, where more than half its #60m or so profits are generated, Diageo may conceivably have persuaded the FTC to accept that other brands should go.

Certainly the length of the discussions indicates that there is a highly complex negotiation taking place with the decision to be announced any day now.

Retention of Dewar's would be a sizable bonus as the indications are that it is now beginning to recover helped by a major marketing campaign.

It would be somewhat messy to have two separate brand owners but the UDV distilling and bottling subsidiary would retain the manufacturing profit.

Market estimates put a value of #550m-to-#600m on the brand if sold as one entity, with Seagram thought the most likely purchaser.

It needs a big hitting Scotch in US with its Chivas Regal selling around 550,000 annual cases or just a third as much as Dewar's.

Seagram would be the most acceptable buyer as far as Diageo is concerned as it would want to continue a high level of investment in the brand and so help increase consumer interest in the Scotch sub-sector.

Allied Domecq would be a reluctant buyer as Dewar's competes with its own

Ballantine's.

With GrandMet set to announce a #1000m profit today, perhaps tomorrow will bring even more encouraging news.