THERE is a thought that Guinness and Grand Metropolitan could escape more lightly than is generally supposed from giving up assets to gain the merger approval of the US Federal Trade Commission.
In any case, one could presume that the FTC would feel sorry for any company that wanted to call itself Diageo.
It is now more than seven weeks since Brussels decided that merger could proceed, with the major restriction being that the European rights to Dewar's be sold.
It was assumed throughout the autumn that the FTC announcement would coincide or at least follow within a few days.
So far, silence.
However, there is an air of great satisfaction from Diageo, which may indicate that the surrender of brands would be not more than 5% of the combined pre-tax profit - or #100m on approximately #2000m - is far too pessimistic a forecast.
Contrary to the general assumption that Dewar's would have to be surrendered in North America, where more than half its #60m or so profits are generated, Diageo may conceivably have persuaded the FTC to accept that other brands should go.
Certainly the length of the discussions indicates that there is a highly complex negotiation taking place with the decision to be announced any day now.
Retention of Dewar's would be a sizable bonus as the indications are that it is now beginning to recover helped by a major marketing campaign.
It would be somewhat messy to have two separate brand owners but the UDV distilling and bottling subsidiary would retain the manufacturing profit.
Market estimates put a value of #550m-to-#600m on the brand if sold as one entity, with Seagram thought the most likely purchaser.
It needs a big hitting Scotch in US with its Chivas Regal selling around 550,000 annual cases or just a third as much as Dewar's.
Seagram would be the most acceptable buyer as far as Diageo is concerned as it would want to continue a high level of investment in the brand and so help increase consumer interest in the Scotch sub-sector.
Allied Domecq would be a reluctant buyer as Dewar's competes with its own
Ballantine's.
With GrandMet set to announce a #1000m profit today, perhaps tomorrow will bring even more encouraging news.
Why are you making commenting on The Herald only available to subscribers?
It should have been a safe space for informed debate, somewhere for readers to discuss issues around the biggest stories of the day, but all too often the below the line comments on most websites have become bogged down by off-topic discussions and abuse.
heraldscotland.com is tackling this problem by allowing only subscribers to comment.
We are doing this to improve the experience for our loyal readers and we believe it will reduce the ability of trolls and troublemakers, who occasionally find their way onto our site, to abuse our journalists and readers. We also hope it will help the comments section fulfil its promise as a part of Scotland's conversation with itself.
We are lucky at The Herald. We are read by an informed, educated readership who can add their knowledge and insights to our stories.
That is invaluable.
We are making the subscriber-only change to support our valued readers, who tell us they don't want the site cluttered up with irrelevant comments, untruths and abuse.
In the past, the journalist’s job was to collect and distribute information to the audience. Technology means that readers can shape a discussion. We look forward to hearing from you on heraldscotland.com
Comments & Moderation
Readers’ comments: You are personally liable for the content of any comments you upload to this website, so please act responsibly. We do not pre-moderate or monitor readers’ comments appearing on our websites, but we do post-moderate in response to complaints we receive or otherwise when a potential problem comes to our attention. You can make a complaint by using the ‘report this post’ link . We may then apply our discretion under the user terms to amend or delete comments.
Post moderation is undertaken full-time 9am-6pm on weekdays, and on a part-time basis outwith those hours.
Read the rules hereComments are closed on this article