This week Neil discusses the big issues in the year ahead

AS WE lumber towards Christmas, it might be supposed that the political turmoil will subside as Brexit, our own new government and President-elect Trump’s preparations for office all settle in and signal the new norm.

Instead, there are still plenty of possible political shocks and unsettling events to ensure 2017 is as turbulent as this year has already been.

Soon, we will know if the Italians have followed the advice of their Prime Minister, Matteo Renzi, to support a relatively modest reform of Italy’s parliamentary system. If Renzi fails, he is likely to resign, provoking a political crisis as forming a new government will be problematic. This uncertainty could trigger unpredictable moves within and around the Italian banking sector, leading to another bout of worries over problematic loans.

In May the French Presidential elections take place. Nobody seriously expects the incredibly unpopular François Hollande (or any other Socialist candidate) to win so the race is likely to be between Republican candidate François Fillon and National Front leader Marine Le Pen. Again, this process could be a catalyst for more political and economic chaos.

Later in 2017, comes the German Federal elections, where Angela Merkel is running for a fourth term as Chancellor. but is unlikely to enjoy a repeat of the stunning performance of her CDU/CSU alliance; more probable is a coalition with the Greens and, perhaps, the FPD, if they secure sufficient numbers. A significant upset in Germany would have serious consequences beyond Europe.

It is not just our immediate neighbours. South Korea is heading towards a political crisis not unlike Watergate in the United States, which brought about the downfall of President Richard Nixon. The South Korean leader, President Park Geun-Hye, is embroiled in a financial scandal; she is fighting for her political life, but government is almost paralysed and the ruling Saenuri Party is in a state of internal strife.

The economic situation in this region is also challenging. With free trade under threat, if not already stressed, the actions of a unperturbed and strong China will be one to watch. Already, there is evidence of an acquisition strategy and the tendency for ‘dumping’ could be reinvigorated.

We are facing an uncertain world so being ready to ‘batten down the hatches’ is a wise precaution.