This week MP Neil Carmichael discusses renewable energy

THE United Kingdom has a target of deriving 15 per cent of all energy consumed from renewable sources by 2020.

Already substantial progress has been made; today 17.8 per cent of total electricity comes from renewable sources, as compared to 7.4 per cent in 2010 and, over the same period, both heating and transport improved to 4.8 per cent from just three per cent in 2010.

The big winner in the race to produce electricity from renewable sources has been wind generation, but solar photovoltaic generation has increased at a remarkable rate with capacity now 5.4 GW(gigawatt) as compared to 2.9 per cent in 2013.

It should also be noted that both hydro and bioenergy have made an impact with plant biomass contributing some 20 per cent of electricity.

These technologies have been the key drivers behind the astonishing increase on total renewable generation of electricity – in the last fully measured year, output increased by 21 per cent, thus reaching 64.7 TWh (terra watt hour) with capacity growing to 24.6 GW.

Projections of energy generation are difficult to make given all the uncertainties and imponderables.

Energy commodity prices are increasingly elastic, but the greatest downward pressures are where commodities have not been dominant in producing electricity, most notably oil where only three TWh of output is predicted on an annual basis for the foreseeable future.

Nevertheless, it is reasonably safe to predict that some 120 TWh of electricity will be generated through renewable sources by 2020.

The total generation of electricity will be around 330 TWh, putting renewable sources substantially ahead of all others, including natural gas at 90 TWh.

Nuclear power will not start or rise sharply until 2028, chiefly due to the balance between decommissioning and new construction.

This is good news locally, as there is a strong renewable sector in the Stroud Valleys and Vale. Onshore wind, for example, is attracting £240 million of additional investment nationally and job opportunities are being created in all renewable sectors.

The restriction to further growth is not the cut in subsidies – renewable is increasingly mature – but the shortage of key skills, many of which were rarely thought of just a few years ago.