MADAM - 2015 has arrived and it is only weeks to the general election.

So now is an opportune time for a bit of crystal ball analysis concerning the current Stroud parliamentary candidates.

Neil Carmichael, our Conservative MP must be considered favourite to retain his seat.

He has not dropped any howlers since being elected and the Conservatives polled the most votes in Stroud at the EU election in May.

Labour have placed Stroud very high on their list of target seats and in David Drew they have a former MP who retains the high regard that he held while in office.

With just over 1,000 votes difference between Carmichael and Drew in GE2010 one can understand Labour’s optimism in regaining the seat.

Labour should gain more disaffected former Lib Dem voters than the Conservatives, while at the same time losing fewer supporters to Ukip than them.

The Lib Dem vote is expected to bomb nationally and it will probably be no different in Stroud.

However, in Adrian Walker-Smith, the LibDems have an experienced parliamentary candidate who in 1987 destroyed the Labour vote on becoming runner-up in that year’s General Election.

So retaining third position and deposit for the Lib Dems is not completely out of the question.

In recent months national membership of the Green Party has doubled and here in Stroud we are reminded that their local councillor Molly Scott-Cato has become an MEP.

Whether that double dose of good news is enough for the Greens to impact upon voting intents in Stroud remains unclear.

Should they increase their share of the vote it would almost certainly be at Labour’s expense.

Their candidate Chris Jockel is described as a local businessman, which is always a plus on a candidate’s CV.

Caroline Stephens, the Ukip candidate faces a daunting task in that she is the fifth different Ukip candidate to contest the Stroud seat in as many elections and none of her predecessors managed to save their deposit.

She is also hampered by being the only candidate to live outside the area and lacking any council ward as a Ukip stronghold.

Independent candidate Alan Lomas has thrown his hat into the ring.

But with no outstanding local issues Mr Lomas will struggle to retain his deposit.

Stroud is a very stable constituency that does not often change its MP so I predict that Mr Carmichael will be re-elected as our MP.

Tom Newman

Stroud