STROUD will be won by the Tories at the General Election next month, according to a new YouGov poll.

YouGov’s official 2019 General Election MRP model was released last night and also shows the Conservatives are currently on course for a sizeable 68-seat majority.

And in Stroud the survey predicts the Conservatives will take the seat from Labour on December 12.

The MRP model estimates include 100,319 interviews conducted over seven days, and correctly predicted a Tory-hung parliament in the 2017 General Election.

Were the election held today, YouGov projects that the Tories would win 359 seats (42 more than they took in 2017) and 43 per cent of the vote (around the same as last time).

The poll also makes good reading for Conservative candidates in neighbouring constituencies. Luke Hall (Thornbury and Yate), Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (The Cotswolds) and Jack Lopresti (Filton and Bradley Stoke) are all predicted to hold on to their seats. 

Here’s everything you need to know about what the YouGov poll says about Stroud, a key battleground seat in Gloucestershire.


Since 1992 Stroud has changed hands three times between Labour and the Conservatives, with hopeful returning David Drew (Labour) holding a slim majority of 687 votes in the 2017 General Election.

In 2016 Stroud voted to remain in the European Union by 55 per cent.

The YouGov poll suggests Tory candidate Siobhan Baillie will beat Labour for the seat on December 12, with an increased vote share for the Green party.

The Green’s have selected Molly Scott Cato, an MEP for South West England and well-known locally.

Brexit Party’s Desi Latimer and Libertarian Party’s Glenville Gogerly are the other candidates standing in Stroud.


The new YouGov poll suggested the Conservatives would get a 68-seat majority, if the election was held tomorrow.

The survey applies national trends to individual constituencies – and predicts the Tories will pick up 44 seats from Labour, including in its traditional strongholds in the Midlands and North of England.

But it comes with a big margin of error and does not reflect local issues that can have an impact on polling day.

The Conservatives are hoping to capture long-standing Labour constituencies that voted heavily to Leave – even those outside the normal marginal range such as West Bromwich West, Bolsover, and Hyndburn.